Friday, April 15, 2011

A Sound Investment (so far)

Soundwill Holdings, which was flagged out in June 2007 at HK4.40 per share, continues to scale the price chart as management unveils more value accretive initiatives. It closed today at HK13.60, which implies a gain of approximately 210% over the 3.8 years holding period, or about 50% per annum. To some extent, this pick has highlighted the importance of investing in companies with growing NAV per share.

The flagship property Soundwill Plaza remains nearly fully let in the prime Causeway Bay district. There was also positive rental growth of 9% yoy, bringing net income from the asset to HK$200 million. As we had flagged out earlier, Soundwill is developing another commercial building behind Soundwill Plaza at Tang Lung street. When completed in FY2013, rental income would likely be boosted by an additional HK$72 million. Including its property assembly / development business, Soundwill's fair value could be about HK$20.00.

When viewed in the context of the horrible global financial crisis which happened during our holding period, Soundwill has proven to be a performing and rewarding bet thus far.


Friday, April 08, 2011

On a rising tide

Jaya Holdings (S$0.63) was the subject of a takeover bid recently. We are of the view that it was a technical bid by the new controlling shareholder Cathay because it had to satisfy the rules of the Takeover Panel. As expected, the independent financial advisor Kim Eng had recommended minorities not to accept Cathay's offer. The takeover has since lapsed. As this poor sentiment dissipates, we expect the price of Jaya shares to quickly breach its book value of S$0.68 and next settle at least in the S$0.70s range. Following its restructuring, we have no issue with the fundamental prospects of the company and estimate its fair value to be substantially higher given the buoyant prospects of the oil and gas industry as well as the new builds in progress. Street estimates its RNAV to be north of S$1.00.


Thursday, April 07, 2011

Show Me the Money

Asia Enterprise Holdings hit an intra day high of S$0.375 as excitement returned to the oil and gas sector. Despite its cash laden balance sheet, the stock closed at S$0.34, below its NAV. Our other recent name Selangor Properties also advanced to RM4.36 from RM4.20 as regional investors take note of the steep discount to NAV of RM5.11. Looking at how the counter is stirring, more upside could be in store.

Innotek which was flagged out a year ago at S$0.50 surged too. It closed at S$0.615. Note that management has consistently doled out a 5 cent per share dividend annually. Hence, it represents a capital gain of 23%. Given its 10% yield on cost, the total return over this 1 year holding period is approximately 33%. If Innotek maintains its cash horde and does not deploy into acquisitions, the current 8% yield is sustainable. Even at S$0.615 per share, it trades at a steep 28% discount to NAV (S$0.85). The upcoming annual general meeting would be held on 28 Apr 2011, where the dividend is likely to be ratified for a pay out in late May 2011. Expect shareholder approval for this sizable payout to bring about further interest in the name.


Sunday, April 03, 2011

On the Right Track

Malaysians will readily tell you that one of the most prime plots of real estate in KL is in Damansara locality. The area has also received a further boost with the government's plans to put up a MRT line through the locality.

One of the prime beneficiaries of the above developments is Selangor Properties (SP), a sleepy KLSE listed company (current price of RM4.20) with a substantial land bank in Damasara.

SP owns about 20 acres of land adjacent to the proposed MRT Blue Line Pusat Bandar Damansara station. Future projects is likely to be integrated with the station, thereby increasing attractiveness and consequently, its selling price.

SP also has a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of about RM200 million (RM0.58 per share). This is because it has a strong recurring cash flows from being a landlord of assets such as the 25 storey Menara Millenium. The capital values of these assets (including Wisma Help, Kompleks Pejabat Damansara) should also increase in future when the MRT stations are completed. These assets are located in close proximity to the Pusat Bandar Damansara and Sematan stations.

SP had been able to consistently grow its book value per share in the last five years. Its last report BV per share is RM5.11. A broker has issued a report on SP in March 2011 titled "Sitting on a Gold Mine". The analyst's estimated RNAV per share is RM7.31 per share.

The group also intends to launch its high end Batai project in the second half of 2011. Strong pre-sales could be a catalyst for price to move closer to BV of RM5.11 per share. Its major shareholder Kayin Holdings obviously sees value as it raised its stake from 61% to 66% recently. A take out by Kayin cannot be ruled out due to the past failed privatization attempts on the group.

Hence, with the numerous catalysts above, this sleepy company may well have its day in the sun soon!


Nerves of Steel

Asia Enterprise Holdings (AEH) continued to perform credibly in FY2010. The group registered EPS of 3.52 cents, extending its track record of profitability to 38 straight years.

With over 50% of its inventory gearing towards supplying the shipping industry, AEH is likely to benefit from the boom in the marine and offshore sector in 2011. In fact, the Group reiterated its bullishness by indicating that the Group "stands to benefit from rising steel prices".

AEH continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with 38% of its NAV being a net cash position of 14 cents.

Valuations wise, the Group remains compelling. At the market price of 34 cents, it trades at a 14% discount to its NAV of 38 cents. On a PER basis, it trades at 9.6x earnings. Excluding its cash horde, the PER dips to only 5.4%.

Hence, valuations does not look overstretched even though it has run up over 20% from our call on 21 December 2010 (when stock was trading at S$0.27 per share).